The afterward analysis letters were issued afresh by advance firms. Abounding may be acquired through Thomson Reuters at www.thomsonreuters.com or 800-638-8241. Some are accessible in the aggregation analysis breadth of The Wall Street Journal Online at WSJ.com, or through Factiva.com. Some of the reports’ issuers accept provided, or achievement to provide, investment-banking or added casework for the companies actuality analyzed.
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Alaska Air Accumulation — ALK-NYSE Hold — Amount 18.84 on July 7 by Jesup & Lamont
Alaska Airlines appear that June cartage fell by 2.6%, on 4.1% beneath accommodation — so that accumulated agency rose by 1.2 credibility to 80.7% from 79.5%. Accumulated agency was bigger than the flat-to-down by 1% we were forecasting. [Affiliated] Horizon Air appear that June cartage fell by 9.2% on a accommodation abatement of 10.8%, so that accumulated agency rose by 1.4 credibility to 79.4% from 78% aftermost year. We are ciphering that appraisement as abstinent in crop beneath by 10%, the low end of the ambit for airlines, as Alaska Air is mostly a calm airline, although we accept [it] was essentially aching in May because of its acknowledgment to Mexican routes. To adverse the abatement in bookings in Mexico, Alaska Airlines confused a cogent accumulated of accommodation to Hawaii, area we accept the aggregation additionally had almost low yields, as it was introducing new service. We are ciphering [second-quarter antithesis per share] of 36 cents, against a accumulation of $1.74 aftermost year, and beneath the accord appraisal of 46 cents … . We’re advancement our Hold appraisement on ALK common, as we accept the banal is somewhat adequately valued, affairs at added than 13 times estimated 2009 EPS of $1.34. Our 2QE-EPS of 36 cents is beneath the consensus, which has been crumbling during the quarter. Bazaar cap: $683 million.
Art Technology Accumulation — ARTG-NNM Buy — Amount 3.90 on July 7 by MKM Partners
We’re adopting our 12-month amount ambition to 5, from 4, on ARTG [which develops and markets e-commerce software products], to reflect three factors: (1) the company’s convalescent accident profile, (2) its consistent, solid fundamentals, and (3) a moderately convalescent bread-and-butter angle and accompanying acceleration in [e-commerce] accumulation valuations. Our new ambition is based on…an enterprise-value/free-cash-flow assorted of 16 times. The banal currently trades at an EV/FCF assorted of aloof 11 times our 2010 free-cash-flow projection. ARTG is appointed to address its 2Q09 after-effects on July 30. We are assured product-license bookings of $16.9 million, which is at the aerial end of management’s guidance. Based on the company’s able pipeline, industry-wide accord activity, acknowledgment from accomplishing ally and alone accord information, we are anticipating solid bookings. How abundant of the product-license bookings construe into acquirement in the division is beneath assertive … . The key cardinal in the annual results, however, will be the product-license bookings. Bazaar cap: $495 million.
Cathay Accepted Bancorp — CATY-NNM Buy — Amount 9.27 on July 6 by B. Riley
CATY [has afresh been] trading at 16.3 times abaft EPS, and 65% of actual book value. The [share] amount is now 22.8% beneath our ambition of 12, based on an 80% TBV assorted activated to the projected $14.71 TBV at June 30, 2010. Similar-sized bounded aeon are trading at a boilerplate TBV assorted of 88.8%. Cathay has had some cogent asset-quality abasement in the accomplished few quarters, and we apprehend this trend to abide in 2Q09. We are assured NPLs [nonperforming loans] to abide to climb, but we accept that the severity of losses on the CRE [commercial real-estate loans that are] acceptable to represent the accumulated of approaching NPLs will be abate than what the aggregation has accomplished in contempo quarters, and that the all-encompassing assets congenital in contempo abode will accommodate some beanbag to any antithesis impact. We apprehend net charge-offs of almost $32 actor in 2Q09 and a accouterment of about $43 actor … . We are bulging 2009 and 2010 EPS of 23 cents and 70 cents, against our above-mentioned estimates of 25 cents and 68 cents. We admit that broker apropos about CATY’s assimilation in CRE loans (roughly 68% of loans are in CRE or construction) continues to counterbalance heavily on the banal … . [The] aforementioned apropos additionally affect abounding of CATY’s bounded peers. Yet we accept that Cathay’s solid assets advantage and its able basic ratios (tangible-common-equity arrangement of 6.39%) will … acquiesce Cathay to accomplish bigger than abounding of its aeon … . We accept that the discounted appraisal accorded to Cathay, admitting its able assets and basic ratios, is unwarranted. With…the banal trading able-bodied beneath [our targets], we’re adopting our appraisement to Buy from Neutral. Bazaar cap: $459 million.
HCC Allowance Holdings — HCC-NYSE Buy — Amount 24.01 on July 6 by Wunderlich Securities
A contempo affair with HCC chief administration affirmed that new Chief Executive Officer John Molbeck … has fabricated a bland alteration [he is additionally president] to the advance role. [The antecedent CEO retired from the post, but will abide on the board.] We apprehend HCC will advance underwriting integrity, and a aloft antithesis area … . HCC should abide alive in the accretion bazaar [and] should booty advantage of the underwriters that charge a basic band-aid [amid] few alternatives. In 2008, HCC fabricated bristles baby acquisitions for a absolute of $72.6 million. During 1Q09, HCC acquired a aggressiveness contractor. We ahead acquisitions of cardinal managing accepted agents will be allotment of the action … . We accept HCC represents one of the best ethics in the allowance market. In our opinion, the accepted appraisal of 8.7 times 2009 estimated EPS of $2.75 and 0.9 times anticipation “09 book amount of $23.27 does not reflect HCC’s double-digit [return on equity] and aggressive advantages. Bazaar cap: $2.7 billion.
HMS Holdings — HMSY-NNM Buy — Amount 40.15 on July 7 by Jefferies & Co.
We’re adopting our ambition to 48, which is 30 to 35 times our “10 [pro forma] EPS appraisal of $1.47, almost in-line with HMSY’s actual two-year price/earnings boilerplate multiple. Considering accepted bread-and-butter conditions, we abide upbeat on the abeyant for advancement antithesis revisions. HMS aids government health-care programs in their efforts to access acquirement and abate operating and authoritative costs. HMs’ cost-containment and payment-accuracy casework are offered through its two wholly endemic subsidiaries, Health Administration Systems and Reimbursement Casework Group. HMS provides cost-recovery casework to government payers; its barter accommodate Medicaid programs, Medicaid managed-care plans, child-support agencies, accompaniment prescription-drug affairs … [etc.] RSG provides Medicare-reimbursement casework to accessible and clandestine hospitals … . A new, competitively won Mississippi arrangement (about $1 actor to $2 actor absolutely ramped-up) validates [the] favorable business ambiance for HMSY. Momentum appears to be continuing [for] 2009. Bazaar cap: $1 billion.
H&R Block — HRB-NYSE Bazaar Accomplish — Amount 16.80 on July 6 by Barrington Research
H&R Block afresh appear the banking after-effects of its budgetary fourth division and budgetary year (ended April 30), which were mixed. Administration provided its budgetary 2010 guidance, assured antithesis from continuing operations to be in the ambit of $1.60 to $1.80 a share, in band with accord appraisal of $1.66. Fourth-quarter absolute revenues from continuing operations decreased 2.9% to $2.467 billion, from $2.541 billion aftermost year, beneath our $2.654 billion estimate/First Call accord $2.529 billion. During 4Q, HRB repurchased 5.6 actor shares at an accumulated amount of $98.7 million, or an boilerplate amount of $17.53 per share, beneath a ahead appear Lath of Directors’ allotment to acquirement up to $2 billion of the company’s accepted banal — abrogation about $1.9 billion [worth] of share-repurchase allotment actual through June 2012. Bazaar cap: $5.6 billion.
Intel — INTC-NNM Buy — Amount 16.75 on July 7 by Collins Stewart
Following eas[ing] of component-supply constraints and the alpha of back-to-school build, anthology ODM [original-design-manufacturer] shipments recovered over the aftermost few weeks. Intel should accept been a key beneficiary, and we apprehend revenues for the division to be up modestly, low-single-digits sequentially, and aloft official advice of collapsed shipments. Margins could abruptness on the upside from bigger fixed-cost absorption. Our 18 ambition reflects an 18 times normalized antithesis ability of a dollar. The assorted is at the beggarly of the actual appraisal ambit of 15 times to 20 times. While Intel’s business archetypal and aggressive position abide unchallenged, it is apparent to all-around bread-and-butter headwinds, industry cyclicality, technology transitions and imbalances amid accumulation and demand. All of these affectation risks to our amount target. Bazaar cap: $93.5 billion.
McDonald’s — MCD-NYSE Able Buy — Amount 57.03 on July 7 by Standard & Poor’s Disinterestedness Research
Raising appraisement to Able Buy from Buy. We anticipate the shares accept become added acute afterwards an 8% abatement so far in 2009, and [after an] underperformance back the bazaar basal in aboriginal March, against shares of select, lower-quality restaurant stocks, which, in some cases, accept risen acutely in a bid for risk. On a added favorable commodity-price outlook, backbone in arising markets, and bigger [foreign-exchange] comparisons after in 2009, we accession our EPS appraisal for 2009 by 5 cents, to $3.85, and 2010E by 20 cents, to $4.10. Based on a revised [discounted-cash-flow] archetypal and advanced P/E arrangement of 17 times, we accession our ambition amount by $4 to 70. Bazaar cap: $63.4 billion.
People’s United Banking — PBCT-NNM Hold — Amount 15.12 on July 6 by Maxim Group
PBCT is accepted to address 2Q09 antithesis July 16, and we’re not anticipating a actual change in contempo antithesis trends; we apprehend 2Q09 EPS … of 7 cents, in band with accord beggarly estimates for PBCT [of] 5 cents to 8 cents … . Aftermost quarter, PBCT appear EPS of 8 cents, beneath the 10-cent consensus, [on] slower top-line growth, due to allowance compression. While accouterment costs were elevated, all-embracing acclaim affection was solid, with a net charge-off arrangement of alone 18 base points. Bazaar cap: $5.3 billion.
Pride International — PDE-NYSE Bazaar Accomplish — Amount 24.15 on July 7 by Morgan Keegan
PDE afresh adapted its agile status, and we are demography this befalling to acclimatize our estimates accompanying to lower day-rate and appliance assumptions for the jack-up fleet, both internationally and domestically. We’re abbreviating our 2Q09E-EPS to 66 cents, from 68 cents, apprenticed by college amount assumptions — as PDE annal costs for currently business added rigs than conduct appeal requires. We are advancement our 2009 EPS appraisal at $2.25, but hardly accent our 2010E-EPS to $2.07 — from $2.15 — accustomed our acceptance changes. Our call: PDE continues to assemblage mat-supported jack-ups, and now has aloof bristles of 20 beneath contract. The aggregation is still appetite to become a deepwater-focused driller, with aftereffect of mat-supported rig agile accepted mid-year … . PDE will be a bigger aggregation and a bigger banal already aftereffect is complete, but at 25% asset-utilization, the new adventure will acceptable attempt … article ambiguity and bread-and-butter apropos present few catalysts for the butt of “09 … we abide on the sidelines until conduct action picks up. Bazaar cap: $4.2 billion.
Sino Forest — TRE-TSE Buy/Medium Accident — Amount C$12.16 by Dundee Securities
We admonish investors to use any weakness in the shares accompanying to [recent] calamity in China as a affairs opportunity, as we do not accept the floods will accept any abrogating appulse on the company. We’re advancement C$20 ambition … based on an 18% abatement to our [net-asset-value] adding of C$24.35/share; the Canadian dollar is account about 86 U.S. cents. TRE trades at 8.1 times and 6 times our “09E and “10E antithesis estimates.
Virgin Media — VMED-NNM Buy — Amount 9.19 on July 8 by Morgan Joseph
Our 15 ambition … is based on a 6 times assorted on our 2009E TEV/Ebitda [total action value/earnings afore interest, taxes, abrasion and amortization]. With the operational improvements in abode and a abiding aggressive landscape, best exemplified by contempo amount increases, we accept VMED is assuredly on a aisle to top-line growth. We accept modeled 1.6% top-line advance in 2010, with a 4.5% access in Ebitda and a almost acceleration of FCF. Risks [include] … bill fluctuations and affiliation risk. Bazaar cap: $3 billion.
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